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Bulls and Bears

News/Business. The latest market news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)

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00:30:00

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Virtual Ch. 130 (Fox Business)

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ac3

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480

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California 5, Sandy 4, Stephan 3, Gary B. 3, New Jersey 2, Obama 2, San Francisco 2, U.s. 2, China 2, Caterpillar 2, America 2, Brenda 2, Obamacare 1, The Capital One Venture Card 1, Ho Ho Ho 1, Tobin 1, Teledine 1, France 1, Orm 1, Neil 1,
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  FOX Business    Bulls and Bears    News/Business. The latest market  
   news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)  

    November 11, 2012
    8:00 - 8:30am EST  

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237th for the marine corps. so you on off the show, show. >> and blue chips dropping over 400 points and a slew of companies announcing new layoffs, since the election. forget about the fiscal cliff, is this a sign of what's to come even without a deal. here are the bulls and bears this week, gary b smith, tobin smith. and stephan fitch. welcome, everybody. todd, four more years of big government means four more years of job losses? >> absolutely, i tell you why. big government is not the
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answer, we've went through th for the past four years and seen government expand over and over again and now the same composition in the congress as well as the white house, what are we looking at. obamacare, dodd frank and heavy costs, companies will not hire. >> okay, stephan, do you agree? >> i agree partially. we should be concerned about government growing out of control. first of all, government through quite a lot during the bush years and we had pretty robust private employment expansion and the government has some down significantly, the tax policy center took a look at this. pops up to 30%, i acknowledge that at the beginning of the obama term and come down since. i think we are going to see that drop in the next three, four years, i don't think he's an anti-government guy don't get me wrong or the government
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expander he's been described as. >> a lot of jobs at the state and local level, but jonas, what do you think it means for the labor market? >> i think for the the labor markets, ifou define success as a low unemployment rate, the government actually can deliver that in some cases and i don't think it is a good measure of success. we are going to come back and four years, now that unemployment is 6% then big government works well. that's not a conclusion you should draw. if you look at japanese they've been running some sort of fiscal stimulus for 20 years now and unemployment rate under 5%, but a terrible economy and a terrible stock market. so, you want a natural unemployment rate to grow not with artificial constant perpetual government deficit spending and again, i think your our government can lower it over the next four years, that's not necessarily good for the country and the economy and the stock market. >> gary b. the question, does government drop and they grow or the private sector grow and where you get the true growth for
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the the economy? >> exactly, brenda, yeah, you showed in the graphic as we opened up the segment, that caterpillar, in this environment, you know, with things like sandy going on and things would be for casting job growth and hiring people, but instead they're laying off people and yet a long list of companies on that and the reason is, they see a sour economy. >> why do they see a sour economy? >> government is growing bigger and stephan, about 24%, study after study has shown, as government takes over a bigger percentage of gdp, it surely will, faster than perceived or forecast at gdp growth, it crowd out private investor and growth period in the economy, slower growth means fewer jobs, that's why you see the list we had at the beginning and why the list ll grow longer as the weeks
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unfold. >> okay, tobin, the next four years, bigge government, what's it mean for the unemployment rate? >> well, brenda, you ow, that if bigger government meant for more employment, california and france would have the most vital economies in the world. i've been in a lot of different parts of the country speaking with small business people and you know, my conference of course, drew millions. the exciting one that they couldn't get to get to. (laughter) the lecture how to keep your company below 49 employees and avoid obamacare, and i listened to the guy talk and the number one conclusion, hire less people and everybody else said, you know what? you're right. you can't layer on another layer and another layer and another layer to small business people. i'm n going to talk to the big guys and for the small business guys, look, that's my money, i'll just have two les people and make up the difference in profits, by the people working harder, that's how it works. >> stephan, we did see he a
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big selloff in wall street voted after the election and then the layoffs from a wide variety of industries. how do you read that? what does that mean for hiring? >> i've just always been suspicious of people who try to read too much into the stock market, it had a couple of bad days, but i think the layoffs, by the way, i don't wa to second guess employer's decisions, i think a lot of times, scaterpillar included, may be making decisions to get things done with fewer people and it's a bit dangerous to read too much into that as well. but having said that, i think it would be sort of silly not to pay attention to government and government should be trying to spur hiring it should not just be out hiring for itself. yes, we should have more teachers, but i think there's such a thing as too much. i don't believe that obama is the big government expander that he is sometimes touted as being. >> are you kidding? >> todd, go ahead. >> in 2008 the u.s. government
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was borrowing 20 cents on the dollar and now 40 cents on the dollar just to cover the overhead costs because they've expanded that much and typically it's 20% of gdp. gary b is right, 24 plus% and growing, it's taking over more of the gdp. therefore you can have the federal government hire everybody, but let's be honest how are you going to pay everybody if you don't have the private sector funding. >> but, also, businesses looking at the eanded debt and they say listen, we know how to do math. and someone's going to pay for it and it's going to be higher taxes and higher taxes is lower profit and that's how it works. >> do you think that caterpillar is making a call based on potential future policy? i think you're short-- what they are saying is foreign governments and their demand is what's falling off right now. the rest of the world is much-- >> right. >> because theyere shrinking their economies a little too early in the receson and too quick into austerity and california is america's
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greatest economy, let's not forget that, much bigger than many, many states combined. right now, that's driving america and technology. >> the biggest doesn't necessarily mean greatest, does it, gary b? >> no, it didn't. and jonas is right. we'll have a chance to see how quickly, quote, unquote, california's economy grows, but i want to come back to one other point and jonas made the comment, government can create jobs. government cannot create jobs. first off to hire teachers, that's the biggest kenard out there, that's not the government's job. we would have had millions of net jobs, instead zero net jobs. the government does not create jobs, so that's silly. >> jonas, quickly respond. >> china's created jobs. it's not good jobs, government
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planning jobs, but if you think the government can't create jobs, look across at the state level. >> and that was-- >> you were right before it's crowding out good private sector jobs. >> exactly. >> you can create jobs at the government level. >> i'm talking net jobs. >> go ahead, gary b. >> i'm talking at the time jobs, if i give my money to the government and the government makes up some job, that's money i would have spent elsewhere and another employer would have hired someone, i'm talking net jobs, it moves the money from one pot to another, creating, quote, unquote, jobs which aren't real. >> that's got to be the last word, thanks, guys. coming up, neil and the rest of us were the first to warn about the fiscal cliff and now the cavuto gang has another first. and that's at the bottom of the hour, but up here first, after the cleanup, the rebuilding. but now, some are asking, would we save lives by relocating sandy victims, relocating sandy victims, rather than this family used capital one venture miles
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to come home for the holidays. that's double miles you can actually use... sadly, their brother's white christmas just got "blacked out." [ brother ] but it's the family party! really jingles your bells, doesn't it? my gift to you! the capital one venture card! for any flight, any time! that's double miles you can actually use! how illuminating. that's double miles what's in your wallet? let me guess, am i on the naughty list again? ho ho ho! so, which supeast 4g lte service would yochoose, based on this chart ? don't rush into it, i'm not looking for the fastest answer. obviouslverizon. okay, i have a different chart. going that way, does that make a difference ? look at verizon.
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it's so much more than the other ones. so what if we just changed the format altogether ? isn't that the exact same thing ? it's pretty clear. still sticking with verizon. verizon. more 4g lte coverage than all other networks combined.
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headlines 30 minutes away. i'll send you back it bulls and bears only on the fox news channel. >> brenda: the price tag on the damage from sandy growing as we're still discovering the true devastation from the super orm. now, se are looking into trying to save lives and future, relocating them inland instead of along the shore lines. toby, you think it's a good idea. >> i do. a look at history. in the netherlands for years, it had horrible flooding
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because of the tidal surges, et cetera and they went out and built new technology to help the tide flooding, but the second thing they did, they moved people farther inland, in california, you know, where i come from, you don't rebuild places on top of fault license move people, it mas sense. and areas you're literally two feet above the shoreline, we're going to have this type of thing, maybe not a super storm like this, but clearly it's the second time in a year and we need to be smart about this and fair to the families, as well as to the taxpayer because they say it's a 50 billion dollar deal and my friends, this will be a 10 billion dollars by the time it's done. >> brenda: todd, is this the role of government to tell people where to move. >> and i don't think so, brenda, however, it's prer of the u.s. government to actually say something as far as providing warnings, you think of seat belt rules and wearing a helmet on a motorcycle.
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telling americans where they should and should not live. you can't do that. >> sure you can, they do it in a variety of places, if you can't get flood insurance, you can't own homes there. >> and you don't prevent people from moving in the flood zones or for rest because of a massive forest fire. if they are willing to assume the risk, that's what hans. >> brenda: jonas, do they assume the risk? flood insurance is subsidize $and wha we're seeing with the federal government picking up the tab for creating inastructure is taxpayers in montana are subsidizing people here in new jersey. >> yes. >> yeah, that's true. i will say, look, we wouldn't have rebuilt san francisco a hundred years ago if you played the it could happen again game, and probably hit again in san francisco. and new jersey, new york, these states deserve federal money, they're net positive to the government. they're the rich states that
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pay in so twister states can get money from the federal government so they deserve their share, even if it's going to happen in another ten years to new jersey. i y draw the lines at houses. we have federally subsidized flood insurance, if you don't get it, you don't deserve additional money from taxpayers. definitely infrastructure, even though it could happen again and cost taxpayers more and from the rest of the country to new jersey, but again, most of the money goes from new jersey to america so they deserve it. >> brenda: should home owners bear more of the cost of rebuilding? >> in some cases. i think, well, i think, it must be said, they are already bearing more in the fact that they have seen their homes destroyed and even if insurance covers it, i mean, the pain of losing your home is enormous and you know, after the hurricane katrina, we did hear similar noise with about, well, we shouldn't rebuild the lower 9th ward. in fact, there was never a
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sweeping federal policy to avoid rebuilding the lower 9th ward and it's been partially rebuilt and a lot of home owners privately made decisions, it's appropriate. on their own, i don't wish to continue with this, i can't do that again. and i think that's probably do something similar here. and let them make their own decisions and don come in with sweeping policies and create some defenses from new york like colin has, you should not oversimplify oversweeping decisions here. >> weigh in on this, relocate or rebuild. >> there's a couple of interesting points that you brought up. one, if we allow the the government to dictate where people live. where does it stop? are they not allowed to live in the middle of the country in tornado alley, not allowed to live in california where their house could be consumed by a forest fire not allowed to live along the shores of
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the mississippi in case it floods. one, the government should stay out of it, but there has to be some cost. he's right. people have suffered badly, but people suffer badly all the time with a house fire, car crash, things like that. the government is subsidizing it and make it go quote, unquote. less costly for them to live there. that's the problem. there has to be somewhat of a burden. >> of course our thoughts and players go out to all of those hard hity the storm. up next, call it a black thursday backlash. wal-mart workers threatening to not show up to work because they've got to show up earlier to work on thanksgiving day. are they right to fight or are they right to fight or should the i'm a conservative investor.
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>> from black fwrie friday to black thursday. wal-mart rushing two hours earlier than last year, and some workers are threatening to strike. gary b, you say they should be happy for having a job. i hit the yes checkbook. workers are welcome to strike. if they don't want to come in, don't come in, but wal-mart is right then to fire them. there's a lot of people out there looking for jobs, they should be thankful they have work at this time. >> you agree. >> i agree in spirit, but i must say i'm with the workers 100%, it's thanksgiving, this is the one time a year when families gather together and hold hands and watch the
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detroit lions get-- >> kumbayah ♪ >> and todd, what's wrong with that. you've worked on a thanksgiving i bet. >> of course, 5 million americans who have been out of work more than 27 weeks, i'm sure they'd love to have that job probably at a lower wage. you should be lucky to have the job. who cares, have the turkey the next day when you're off. it doesn't make sense. >> boo! >> yeah, i'm the grincof thanksgiving, but i've got to tell you get to work wal-mart people, got a lot of people waiting in line to buy goods. >> it's a tough retail environment and tough time to find a job. >> workers should be thankful to have the job. but wal-mart shoulbe thankful for what is essentially a low compensation package and shoppers coming in, and maybe offer lucrative overtime for the crazy
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shoppers shifts. and they would then be signing up to face the crazy shoppers. that's the way it get out of this and avoid butting heads with the workers. >> okay. toby? >> well, unfortunately, a lot of jobs at wal-mart are what we would call low skilled jocks, you don't have a lot of choice was low skills. get higher skills to have more opportunities or let somebody have the job that you don't seem to care about. >> as a shareholder of wal-mart, i think they should be open all day and have them open at 8 a.m. why are they waiting so long? >> oh, my gosh. we'll have to see you there in line. all right, guys, thanks a lot much. the name is shortened the gas lines and prevent the u.s. from ever seeing them again.
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ally bank. why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
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>> predictions. toby, you're up. >> all right. generac is the generator that allows the gas stations not to close down and have power. i like them for homes. the next couple of years. >> brenda: a bull or bear. >> a bear. too much debt and the earnings are projected o down in the coming here. >> brenda: gary b. >> i like apple, finally on sale. the stock never goes on sale. it's been crushed lately and i think it moves back up. give it about 50% upside by middle of next year. >> brenda: jonas, bull or
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bear. >> it has a lackluster year ahead of it. >> lackluster. >> brenda: okay. your prediction? >> stern ruger makes a lovely pistol. i don't believe the nonsense obama passing gun laws, a year or two. >> brenda: todd, what do you think. >> everybody was buying guns before the election, and stand y three months ago, it's too late now. >> brenda: and your predicon. >> veterans weekend, i'm looking at teledine, the smart software, if we enter a smart war, the company up 15% by july. >> brenda: and happy veterans day to everybody. toby, bull or bear. >> love the veterans and dislikthat stocky would take thatt rugerun and get rid of it. >> brenda: jonas quickly. >>

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